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Article | Modelling the number of quitters needed to achieve New Zealand’s Smokefree 2025 goal for Maori and non-Maori

Overview

In this modelling study, published in the New Zealand Medical Journal, the ASPIRE2025 and BODE3 research groups found that to achieve the New Zealand Government’s Smokefree 2025 Goal (a below 5% smoking prevalence by 2025), there would need to be additional averages of 8400 Māori long-term quitters per year (5.2 times the business-as-usual [BAU] level on average) and 8800 extra non-Māori quitters per year during 2018 to 2025 (1.9 times the BAU level on average).

Given these findings, it suggests that to achieve the Smokefree 2025 goal, the Government will need to massively increase investment in established interventions (smoking cessation support, mass media) whilst continuing with substantial tobacco tax increases, or else add substantive new strategies into the intervention mix.

The following graph shows the projected annual number of Māori quitters required to achieve <5% adult daily smoking prevalence by 2025, including the estimated number of quitters achieved via current Ministry of Health funded smoking cessation services

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The full article can be viewed in the New Zealand Medical Journal (Note subscription access required until June 2019)

Read media story from Stuff New Zealand not on track to meet ‘ambitious’ Smokefree 2025 goal

For more information or to request a copy of the article, please contact:
Nick Wilson
University of Otago, Wellington
email nick.wilson@otago.ac.nz

Citation
Wilson, N., Petrovic-van der Deen, F., Edwards, R., Waa, R., Blakely, T. (2018) Modelling the number of quitters needed to achieve New Zealand’s Smokefree 2025 goal for Maori and non-Maori. New Zealand Medical Journal Volume 131 Number 1487